Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 45

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 152028
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
2100Z MON AUG 15 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 66.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 66.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 37.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.4N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 50.5N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 200SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 66.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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