Hurricane Jova

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 152038
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
2100Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 152038
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
2100Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 131.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 132.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$