Hurricane Jova

Forecast Advisory 21

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 170236
TCMEP5
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


$$



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170236
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 95SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


$$