Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 151426
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
1500Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151427
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
1500Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 120.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 120.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$