Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 8

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 161431
TCMEP5
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 135.0W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 135.0W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 134.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 135.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161451
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


$$