Hurricane Kenneth

Forecast Advisory 22

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 200232
TCMEP3
HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005
0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200233
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 130.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 130.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 130.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 130.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


$$