Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 050237
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z MON SEP 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 56.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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