Hurricane Max

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220833
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005
0900Z THU SEP 22 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 220842
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0900Z THU SEP 22 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 134.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 136.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.7N 136.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 137.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 135.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


$$