Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 100941
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005

...CORRECTED 72 HOUR FORECAST INTENSITY TO 85 KT...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.9N 76.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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