Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 101436
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$



000
WTNT25 KNHC 101444
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 175SE 175SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 175SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 45SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 44.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


$$



000
WTNT21 KNHC 101450
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005

...TO CORRECT WIND RADII IN THE NW QUADRANT...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$