Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 102031
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z SAT SEP 10 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 160SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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