Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 110237
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SUN SEP 11 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 75.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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