Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 21

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 111436
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z SUN SEP 11 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N 75.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.9N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.7N 76.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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