Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 22

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 112039
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z SUN SEP 11 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.9N 77.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 41.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 76.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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