Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 29

---

000
WTNT21 KNHC 131433
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z TUE SEP 13 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.4N 75.7W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.7N 72.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 65.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 47.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$