Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 31

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 132125
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2130Z TUE SEP 13 2005

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2130Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



000
WTNT21 KNHC 132137
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2130Z TUE SEP 13 2005

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 64-KT RADII AT ADVISORY TIME

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 13/2130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 77.9W AT 13/2130Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 77.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$