Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 38

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 151430
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z THU SEP 15 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 200SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.2N 70.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.2N 63.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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