Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 280836
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0900Z WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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