Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 3

---

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 282017
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
2100Z WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.3N 109.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 23.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$