Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 290230
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z THU SEP 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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