Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 7

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 292018
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
2100Z THU SEP 29 2005

INTERESTS NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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