Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 8

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 300232
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z FRI SEP 30 2005

AT 8 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC
COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.7W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.7W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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