Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 301415
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
1500Z FRI SEP 30 2005

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ALONG TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 110.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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