Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 12

---

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 010230
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z SAT OCT 01 2005

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 111.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$