Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 14

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 011451
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W...INLAND OVER ARIZONA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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