Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 020230
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


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