Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 020845
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0900Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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