Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 021432
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
1500Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO
LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN
LUCAS TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO
NORTHWARD TO MULAGE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 111.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 111.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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