Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 20

---

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 030250
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z MON OCT 03 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM
PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER
COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


$$