Hurricane Otis

Forecast Advisory 21

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 030835
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0900Z MON OCT 03 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.8W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.8W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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