Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 12



000
WTNT22 KNHC 200830
TCMAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 56.8W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 56.8W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 56.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.8N 57.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 57.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 58.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.0N 58.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 34.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 56.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$


000
WTNT23 KNHC 200842
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 79.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 79.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.1N 81.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.4N 84.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.6N 87.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 89.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 79.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$