Hurricane Rita

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 201736
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1800Z TUE SEP 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W AT 20/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W AT 20/1800Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 81.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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