Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150244
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0300Z SAT OCT 15 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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