Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 3

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151425
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
1500Z SAT OCT 15 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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