Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160237
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 102.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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