Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 8

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 162032
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
2100Z SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 104.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 104.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 104.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN


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