Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 9

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170240
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0300Z MON OCT 17 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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