Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170835
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0900Z MON OCT 17 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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