Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 192007
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
2100Z WED OCT 19 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.1N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.1N 122.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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