Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200811
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0900Z THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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