Hurricane Stan

Forecast Advisory 8

---

000
WTNT25 KNHC 030905
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0900Z MON OCT 03 2005

...CORRECTED TO ADD 34 KT RADII AT ADVISORY TIME...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO
ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 91.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$