Hurricane Stan

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 032039
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
2100Z MON OCT 03 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL
LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 92.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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