Tropical Storm Chris

Forecast Advisory 1

---

036
WTNT23 KNHC 010254
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 59.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN