Tropical Storm Chris

Forecast Advisory 15

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520
WTNT23 KNHC 040834
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 70.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 70.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 70.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA