Tropical Storm Chris

Forecast Advisory 16

---

201
WTNT23 KNHC 041431
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 71.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 71.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 71.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.6N 73.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 76.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 78.6W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 81.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN