Tropical Storm Chris

Forecast Advisory 18

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328
WTNT23 KNHC 050230
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE
EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 78.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 81.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 99.5W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 74.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB