Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 5

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638
WTNT25 KNHC 252031
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 25SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 67.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





605
WTNT24 KNHC 252035
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 44.7W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 44.7W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 44.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 46.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.2N 48.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.3N 49.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 48.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 39.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN