Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 6

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086
WTNT25 KNHC 260304
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND AT 48 HOURS AND TO ADD 36 HOURS NEAR
JAMAICA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W...NEAR JAMAICA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB