Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 13
049
WTNT25 KNHC 272032
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.0W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 74.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
985
WTNT24 KNHC 272033
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 48.6W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 48.6W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 48.9W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 33.8N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 48.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
543
WTNT25 KNHC 272036
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
...CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1004 MB...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.0W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 74.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
