Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 14

---

805
WTNT25 KNHC 280239
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN